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Analysis market penetration of electric vehicles on the market for German cars by 2030.
Deutsches Zentrum a Luft- und Raumfahrt f r DLR Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany.
B Daimler AG, Neue Str 95, 73230 Kirchheim Teck-Nabern, Germany.
Received August 10, 2012, Revised February 8, 2013, Accepted February 11, 2013, available online 16 March 2013.
There is currently intense public debate of battery electric vehicles FCEV fuel and other electric powertrains, including battery electric vehicles BEV, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles PHEVs and hybridized motor vehicles combustion HEV In this context the German government has set a goal of one million electric vehicles on the road by 2020 and six million by 2030 1 the purpose of this article is to identify the market share as possible of electric vehicles in the new German fleet in three scenarios in the period 2010-2030 technology VECTOR21 scenario vehicle model is used to model the fleet in three scenarios in the baseline scenario with the usual parameters such as business trips, 189.000 electric vehicles will be sold in Germany by 2020 two scenario with incentives for the purchase price of 5,000 euros, the pri x high oil and low prices for hydrogen and electricity will result in 727,000 vehicles in the latter scenario with major OEM markup reductions and external conditions as in t he business as usual scenario, Mar. 28 million vehicles will be sold.
The analysis shows that the success of the market for replacement power train group vehicles depends largely on external conditions Without incentives for the purchase price, oil prices, and lower energy costs for hydrogen and electricity, alternative powertrains will not enter the market, however, OEMs could stimulate the market if they accept negative margins during the first 10 years after the introduction of the market.
В є The success of market power train group of replacement vehicles depends largely on external conditions в є Without external action 189,000 electric vehicles will be sold in Germany by 2020 в ë Incentives for 5000 EUR and favorable prices of energy will result in 727,000 vehicles by 2020.
Corresponding author Daimler AG Energy Systems Analysis, Neue Str 95, 73230 Kirchheim Teck-Nabern, Germany Tel 49 7021 892 599; Fax 49 7021 893 423.
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Analysis market penetration of electric vehicles on the market for German cars 2030, market penetration, analysis, electrical.