Gambian President Adama Barrow, UK Nos1 trade partner
How the major export sectors of the UK under Brexit fare.
Based on interviews with companies, professional associations and further research, the new Open Europe report featured in the Financial Times today examines eight major export sectors of the UK, covering half of exports United Kingdom to the EU.
The table below summarizes our assessment of the initial disturbance of a Brexit may cause to individual sectors and the chances of these similar industries have access to the EU market under a preferential trade agreement as they do now .
The initial disturbance Brexit would be high for all sectors.
All export sectors we evaluated would experience an initial disruption and uncertainty in the event of withdrawal of the United Kingdom 35 goods exports from the UK to the EU that could be subject to high customs tariffs above 4 on the output as cars, chemicals and food and the highly regulated financial services industry would be particularly vulnerable It is likely that this would have an impact on a short-term negative impact on FDI foreign direct investment by the half of FDI inflows in the UK are in financial services, some of which could be at risk, at least in the short term, if access to the EU market is reduced.
Major incentive to conclude a trade agreement covering goods sector.
However, our assessment shows that, in the context of trade negotiations, there is a great motivation for the UK and EU to conclude an agreement for all sectors of the property we evaluated.
For example, for the auto industry, leaving the EU customs union would be a challenge because it would mean adapting to new administrative procedures at the EU border and could lead to uncertainty on the chains supply European-wide average, only 37 of the value of the supply chain that goes into a vehicle manufactured in the UK comes from the UK.
But the UK has a trade deficit with the EU in cars 13 9bn, of which Germany accounts for 10 85 billion, the EU would clearly maintain and the experience of automotive supply chains to States STATES, Canada and Mexico in the north American free trade Agreement NAFTA illustrates a customs union is not a prerequisite for an integrated automotive, border.
Note that in all British goods business sectors would face new charges of directors at the EU border, because of the rules governing foreign content in their products and in the case of chemicals and food, an agreement would be potentially subject to strict conditions, such as adhering to high regulatory costs or maintenance of EU prices with the rest of the world to the detriment of consumers negating some of the potential benefits of Brexit as prices cheaper food outside of the common agricultural policy.
Service industries such as finance may be more exposed.
The story is different in the financial services sector where the UK recorded a large surplus with the EU of 19 9bn Not only the trade surplus changes the incentives from the EU side, the EU has an established policy only offering companies from third countries including Switzerland restricts border access to EU markets based on strict conditions only member European economic Area Norway's position offers complete access, but also implies accepting all EU rules speechless.
Post-Brexit the EU within the center of gravity can progress to a more challenging regulatory regime for access to the single market The European Parliament hostility to the Anglo-Saxon finance, in particular, could prove a major obstacle.
All sectors suffer from the British loss of voting rights in the EU, but for industries such as the financial sector, the impact could be greater than the barriers to entry can be increased by the new European regulations which the United Kingdom has no voice.
At the same time, there is clearly the potential benefits outside the EU, Britain would be nimble and resumed the trade policy review and, perhaps, a whole range of regulations The chemical sector would, for example , benefit greatly from a more cost effective policies to reduce emissions, currently impossible because of EU rules carmakers would benefit from a trade agreement with China unlikely to occur in the EU industry Scotch whiskey, representing 25 of the UK food and drink exports, could really do with a trade agreement with India a big whiskey consumer where it is currently facing a $ 150.
Meanwhile, the future of financial services in the EU is shrouded in uncertainty and with the risk of the single market increasingly dominated by the interests of the euro zone at the expense of dynamic financial markets could offer Brexit ability to reduce or better tailor regulations to increase the sector's competitiveness on world markets.
Exactly what would happen to these sectors depend on the precise terms of any agreement to end and new relationship with UK-EU, however, just as important, it will depend on the UK decision itself would, for example, that day, the UK was going further than the EU standard on climate change and UKIP voters and others for Brexit, really eager to find a comprehensive trade agreement with India with all the implications for cheap, foreign competition could involve.
For this, we will focus our full reports coming to macroeconomic implications and regulatory Brexit, so watch this space.
The assumption is that a deal can be done No self-respecting society council may wait to see what kind of deal is done 24 They must act to protect their business.
More than 50 of net exports by the United Kingdom sector are financial services and insurance 41 5 3trillion global currency dollar a day, more than 40 world interest rate swaps are traded in London, the banking capital exchange transactions in the world Comparison of US 15, France and Germany combined are 5 as noted above, on January 3 of this activity is exported to Europe.
As a member of the EU, the London banking sector is able to trade freely throughout Europe on Brexit banks should establish a new local company in Europe to EU affairs We must therefore consider 1 3 of our banking system to migrate to continental Europe, it is not on the formation of the EURO because of the single market.
REALISTIC at least two years should be to a large bank to outsource an important operation in the continent, therefore no responsibility of an international bank card can expect to do anything but start preparing a substantial shift on and BREXIT there will be a race for market share, a race to the properties, a run for the network bandwidth, etc.
If we opt for BREXIT, not expect a small disturbance in the economy, but tore his guts not show rising house prices in London, but their collapse, not look a book up, but a run on the pound, shows not the benign near-zero inflation, but a massive inflationary shock in the UK with significant job losses.
Yes many migrants leave and leave us to pick up the mess.
TTIP AND EU - US trade deal progresses slowly Given half a chance, the US would be significantly waive certain contentious issues to quickly reach an agreement with the EU and steal market share in the UK.
On the overall balance of trade, will auto worker in France seek a trade agreement or block cars in the UK on the domestic market so that they can be themselves European workers have big say in what their politicians do not expect anything but a very bumpy ride.
When you look at the trade deficit with Europe running at 54 billion pounds per year, there would be no chance of a trade war, the EU will continue to take us as long as possible but why on earth would we want to constantly increasing loss as if we ran a store like that, we d be bankrupt in a day; we need to find someone decent for trade with somewhere not protectionist, like the EU countries; somewhere where we would be welcome to trade in a growing market Those red spots on EO table are alarmist propaganda.
Interesting and useful, but for the sake of balance, can not be a similar assessment carried out to describe the impact of the EU on Brexit.
UK is a net importer, at least 51 of our imports from EU Pro-EU Machine likes to describe the pain that will be received by the UK industry, but never mention how the EU would be hit by Brexit Some facts be useful here Maybe illustrations rates that the UK would impose on imports from the EU, and transit of EU goods through the UK, eg Ireland.
These factors have not been fully explored and I can not see why the EU trots a line off and you clearly suffer from is the truth and we suffer all you need to explore to the strength of the hand trading in the UK can be achieved.
A great effort The first list I see that try to make an inventory and good.
Little too defensive but IMHO There are a lot of opportunities.
Say 10 importduty on cars will make the UK makes it much more attractive especially in the non-premium part.
Possibility of replacing the expensive EU cheaper non-European things Go to the French agricultural sector, I would say.
You need to know the problems and the possibility of obtaining the best result of a negotiation.
Another thing I miss is where the EU will be hurt a question that left hasnot dropped the penny but with most continental politicians.
This analysis is useful because it brings the different position of trade in goods and services trade would obviously more likely that access to the European market considered in Brexit post services As the EEA option seems to be a non-starter because it would require the same access to the United Kingdom for immigrants an electorate has rejected the EU because of its open-door immigration policy is unlikely to accept precisely the same provisions immigration from the accession of the EEA.
The question How would succeed in Brexit main export sectors in the UK is a loaded question.
The question involves a lot of things, but ultimately leads to fear uncertainty doubt.
Uncertainty is here that begins fears the trade-war UK start The Commission may begin if no advantage to start a trade war then there is no logical reason for it.
Does the commission have different motivations than the EU, no matter what the commissioners might believe benefit from a trade war.
The commission is trying to sign the TTIP, supposedly this alone would imply that the commission is sympathetic people friendly free trade and free trade do not want to start a trade war if the Commission launched a trade war then it would be for a one reason - a bare-game power Thus, the two will compete for the commission that one is more likely to win the love of power or professes as free trade.
Only the European Economic Area membership position of Norway offers complete access, but also implies accepting all EU rules speechless.
Not quite true on the rules Whereas the UK would need to respect the acquis EEA single market on the existing rules even now he would be able to influence the future trade and rules products by international bodies such as the United Nations economic Commission for Europe, it would have its own full voice, not limited to 8-10 EU voting weight.
How deep that research will S Korea has negotiated trade duty-free in the car with the EU - big cars are now duty free, with small car prices ending in 2016. The Koreans also manufacture their Car broader international standards ECE given the balance of trade, the United Kingdom would certainly secure trade free of similar rights - with the EEA Norway option, it would maintain free trade in services also .
I do not believe that the EU wants a trade war that would damage their economies squeaky The Lisbon Treaty commits the EU to be more free trade with its neighbors and if anything to work for the liberalization of international trade It will not set up trade barriers to us unless we did the same for them.
The EU wishes to liberalize services too TISA order and is the vanguard of the liberalization proposals with Australia, Canada and 20 other major economies, the EU and the United Kingdom are members of the WTO and accept the objectives of WTO treaties before trade liberalization as well as the letter of the law.
It is a WTO principle that regional unions such as the European Union should be a means of facilitating trade among members, but not to raise barriers to trade In fact, they should avoid creating adverse effects to other WTO members iE Brexit we display, so do may result in penalties compensation See WTO publication on the interpretation of Article XXIV of the General Agreement on tariffs and trade 1994.
What about businessmen who interview clued in international law and less sensitive to a very small alarmism that MSM dresses as a comment.
Director Henry joined Open Europe after working as a special adviser in the Ministry of Justice and the Cabinet Office has taught politics at SOAS and elsewhere, and studied at Oxford University , Harvard University and the London School of economics View Articles Follow HenryNewman Email.
Director of Policy and Research Stephen is director of policy and research at Open Europe While at Open Europe, he wrote about European regulations, justice and home affairs and the EU aid policy is Stephen holds an undergraduate degree in political science and received the Jean Monnet prize for his master holder of European studies of the University of Sussex Stephen professional interests include democracy and transparency in the EU, interaction between domestic law and the EU and European cooperation in crime and policing It is half Dutch See Articles Follow OpenEurope Email.
Head of the Brussels Office Pieter is the head of the Brussels office of Open Europe Open Europe Brussels VZW He frequently contributes to broadcast and print media across Europe, frequently discussing reform of the EU, the refugee crisis and eurocrisis A trained lawyer, Pieter previously practiced law in Belgium and worked as a counselor's office and speechwriter of the Belgian Secretary of State for administrative reform Pieter has also worked as an analyst at the Institute Belgium Itinera, he helped found, he received his legal education at the Catholic University of Louvain, and also studied law and economics at the University of Hamburg, Bologna and Vienna Pieter fluent in Dutch, English and French, he also speaks Italian and German intermediaries View Articles Follow pietercleppe Email.
Senior Analyst Vincenzo political specializes in politics and the economy of Southern Europe and is a regular commentator in print and broadcast across Europe Vincenzo cosigned opened Intelligence Europe change in policy on the free movement EU labor law, financial regulation and the European neighborhood Policy policy is also an expert on EU institutions, the crisis in the euro area, and the cost of EU regulation.
Before joining Europe Opened in 2009, Vincenzo has gained work experience at the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs A __gVirt_NP_NN_NNPS<__ indigène italienne, il parle couramment le français et l'espagnol, et parle bien allemand Vincenzo est titulaire d'une maîtrise avec spécialisation en relations internationales et politique mondiale de la Université de Naples l Orientale et une maîtrise s en affaires internationales de l'Université de Bologne Alma Mater Studiorum Il a également travaillé en tant que musicien, et titulaire d'un diplôme en piano classique au Conservatoire de musique de Avellino - sa ville natale en Italie Voir les articles Suivez LondonerVince Email.
Research Officer and communications Alex joined Open Europe after working in public affairs and political reports in Westminster and the European Parliament under Robert Schuman Scholarship He holds a graduate degree in political science from the Stock Exchange London focusing on European Union, comparative politics and international political economy He also holds a Master of European literature from Cambridge University, and is fluent See articles French and Spanish Email .
Political analyst Aarti joined Open Europe after working as a researcher in public affairs She holds an MA in European Public Policy UCL, focusing on learning the political crisis in the European Union, she also holds an undergraduate degree in French and English literature from the University of Durham, and received bachelor's research prize 2015 specialized university she speaks French View Email items.
How the major export sectors of the UK under Brexit draw, export sectors, price brexit.