The short-term losses - Nick Crafts on the economy of Brexit
National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
After Brexit What is the importance of trade in the United Kingdom is the EU.
The question of trade agreements in the UK will have with the European Union, should we choose to leave the EU, is at the heart clearly assess the economic impacts of Brexit one hand, the campaign remains argues that there is no guarantee of a trade deal, even if there is one, it can be very asymmetric, like Norway basically forced to accept the rules of the single market without much if any say they are or Switzerland, which does not have a complete or automatic access but still has free movement of workers on the other hand, leave the campaign argues that we would be one of the largest EU trading partners and therefore, they would have a strong incentive to reach an agreement that we would be more advantageous to that of Switzerland or Norway.
But, although it is clear that the UK is indeed an important trading partner for the rest of the EU, the statistics on the precise size are hard to find so my attention was drawn by a complaint by Dan Hannan MEP.
We run a huge trade deficit with the EU, but a surplus with the rest of the world the day we left us to become the largest single market in the EU, which represents 21 percent of its exports over its second and third largest markets in the US and Japan.
Now that M. Hannan statistics should be taken with a grain of salt is an understatement While both sides in the statistics on the use of the referendum as a drunk uses a lamppost for support, rather than lighting, Mr Hannan used to simply invent not only the checks did not, but, worse, it doesn t correct his mistakes, even after five said as Hugo Dixon says here Hannan apparently accepted that his statements are false, but not taken down or changed its video.
So I am skeptical result and the fact that he seems to have been making the same request for at least three years doesn t exactly inspire confidence, but from the top of my head, I did not know what the exact figure was, or where exactly to find it and it is certainly an important debate, so I decided to try to work out.
He will find it relatively easy to find the number of shares of exports from the euro area of goods, not services See here and here that give numbers like 12 or 13 per cent, but to get a figure for EU ex UK as a whole, you have to build the numbers you I have done with the business support services European Commission could probably also use the IMF's Direction of trade statistics for trade merchandise.
The results are that exports of EU goods, excluding the United Kingdom to the world, including the United Kingdom are about 1 800 billion euros; UK, about 295 billion, or just under 16 percent Here's a pie chart.
Thus, 21 percent of M. Hannan is indeed far; but the second half of his statement where he suggested that Japan is the second largest export market in the EU, and the UK is larger than the second and third largest markets in place, is even more ridiculous.
But these figures do not suggest that we would become the EU's largest trading partner in goods trade, however, it would probably not be the case for trade in services including all likely reduce the share of UK exports slightly EU outside the UK just over 600 billion euro in services, while the UK imports only about 40-45 billion in services from the rest of the EU in addition, United States very likely breach the UK as the EU's largest export market outside the UK, however I have not presented the numbers, including the services here because they come from different sources and Eurostat and ONS aren t fully compatible it would be a very useful exercise for someone to flesh this analysis, including trade in services, and observing trends over time.
What does this say about the UK's bargaining power with the EU after a Brexit well, it certainly confirms that we become one of the largest export markets in the EU, although not necessarily But most of us still be much smaller EU they do us the EU is still about 45 percent of our exports, down 55 percent at the turn of the century, if you treat the EU as a single country, as this analysis is, exports are considerably less overall intra-EU trade is much more important to almost all EU countries in fact, as the table shows Eurostat only for Ireland and Cyprus UK account for over 10 percent of the total, including intra-EU exports.
So how important exports to the United Kingdom is the EU economy after the EU Brexit exports to the United Kingdom account for about 3 percent of the EU GDP; not insignificant by any means, but perhaps not as dramatic as one might think, the EU, and even more in the UK, would certainly have a strong incentive to negotiate a reasonable post-trade agreement Brexit But no should imagine the UK holds all the cards.
Part of the point of this note, of course, is a plea for the care and precision in the use of statistics in this debate from all sides and on a subject in the same article, M. Hannan also made some statements about the export performance relative per capita in the United Kingdom and Switzerland These are also, unsurprisingly, quite wrong electorate deserves a lively debate about the merits or otherwise of Brexit based on facts precise statistics people on each side of the debate are misleading or false statement of fact in order to strengthen their case are guilty of poor service to the public.
Corrected typo - see comment conservativesupport.
After Brexit What is the importance of trade in the UK is the national of the European Union Institute for Economic and Social Rights, brexit importantly, trade, national.