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Two false assumptions about taking on Germany Brexit.
On 29 March, the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, has delivered a notice of withdrawal in Brussels This movement triggered the two-year countdown to the release of Britain from the EU.
While the European Commission officially lead the negotiations for the EU, the governments of the EU Member States want to stay deeply involved, given what is at stake Many people expect Germany to take a leading role in these negotiations, and that this role will be shaped primarily by the interests of its powerful export firms I think both assumptions are false.
For most Germans, Brexit really does not matter much even Europe as a whole has not on the list of German concerns when Brexit is a big problem in political circles when German politicians Brexit not speak publicly, they tend to repeat what he should not be cherry picking, the dismantling of the single market rather than what it should look like.
German company is another matter, the British government is right to say that there is a lot at stake for the German economy in 2016, Germany exported 86 billion worth of goods in the UK, while imports from the UK were less than half as 750,000 jobs in Germany are said to depend on exports to the United Kingdom and 2,500 German companies are active in the UK, having invested 120 billion there.
The German automotive industry is particularly dependent factories based in the UK and sales, but also the German pharmaceutical products, machinery manufacturing, financial institutions and other not surprising that four out of ten German companies expect Brexit harm their business.
Is Angela cave Merkel demands of German companies and adopt a soft stance in the negotiations, as many Britons are waiting in the past, German foreign policy was indeed often motivated by economic interests, but are not not necessarily the case today, the sanctions on Russia is a very important precedent the strongest pressure groups could not influence the determination of Berlin to punish Russia for the annexation of the Crimea.
Merkel's priority is to keep the EU27 together and protect the EU's achievements, addressing the federation of German employers in 2016, Merkel explicitly asked business leaders gathered to put the sanctity of the single market au above their individual commercial interests and, indeed, for many German companies, maintaining their pan-European supply chains, for example, a German automobile assembly plants with suppliers in Central Europe is more important than preservation of business they do with the UK.
While Germany is unlikely to adopt a soft approach, it is not to punish Britain or This does not deny that there is disappointment The British have always been shy members, many Germans complain and many others are perplexed that a country could go into such a memorable referendum totally unprepared for the outcome.
But the Germans also remember great contributions from the UK to the EU single market, enlargement towards the East, the common security policy and they hope that the country can remain close and constructive partner.
Angela Merkel likely to adopt a pragmatic approach.
Angela Merkel, in any case, a politician who will discuss the negotiations based on the emotions of disappointment and longing It is a pragmatist.
And while British politicians often in national political constraints to explain their EU policies, it is important to remember that Brexit is only a small part agenda of Merkel in 2017 to integrate a complex task From large numbers of refugees, the simmering conflict in Ukraine and face an unpredictable Donald Trump in the US and increasingly bellicose Recep Erdogan in Turkey, Angela Merkel got her work cut out she has to face all these challenges struggling against a difficult campaign before the September elections in his country whatever the outcome of this vote, it will be fought not on foreign policy issues, such Brexit but on domestic issues, including immigration, security and social justice.
Many EU experts say Brexit talks could well be the EU has ever faced sets of negotiations more difficult To complicate things, there will not be a series of negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU27, but several.
Between the EU and the EU institutions in Brussels for the European Commission and Parliament, the Brexit negotiations will be part of a broader struggle to preserve their traditionally important role in shaping EU policies .
Among the EU27, while other EU countries seemed firmly united in view of Brexit negotiations, each country has different priorities and red lines on Brexit Moreover, Brexit talks will be mixed with wider debate on the future of the EU, for instance on a number of EU migrants speeds or EU access to national social security systems.
In each EU country Brexit tackles major issues of today, such as free trade against protectionism, nationalism against multilateralism and xenophobia against tolerance Because the important negotiations Brexit to the national debate in Germany, it will not be on car prices and financial services will be on traditional politicians to make concessions to populism forces.
Add to this complex mix of negotiations, the fact that Germany is seeking to redefine its role in Europe and in the world, and it is clear that various different motivations flow into Germany that the position of some of Brexit negotiations little to do with Brexit.
Many European neighbors Germany, asked Berlin to show more leadership well how they define it, often in terms of Germany to pay more money to poorer neighbors or assume part their debt is not consistent with German ideas of national responsibility many Germans were disappointed when Berlin demonstrated leadership in the refugee crisis, but many EU partners has allowed in some of the newcomers .
In this context, the Germans are now thinking about the question of what leadership means in Europe, what price they are willing to pay and what are the responsibilities of other EU countries should be the election of Donald Trump has led some commentators to declare Angela Merkel leader of the free world, a job she rejected vigorously.
These debates on leadership are not easy for the Germans, for historical and other reasons, making it unlikely that Berlin will seek a leading role in the upcoming negotiations Brexit.
Instead, Berlin will want to stay as close as possible to Paris assuming Marine Le Pen does not win the presidency in May to try to revive the Franco-German partnership after a difficult decade, so if you want to know how Germany will define its Brexit negotiating position, you can also look to France.
This article is based on a speech at Chatham House, London, in December 2016.
The views expressed are the author's own and do not reflect that of any organization.
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