Brexit - All costs and benefits No? - Prof. Richard Whitman - Geopolitical Analysis in depth
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The importance of Germany business ties and energy with Russia is inevitably a key factor shaping attitude of Germany in their relationship came This sharper focus with the crisis in Ukraine, where Germany was considered unlikely to participate in tough sanctions against Russia, preferring to encourage the negotiations to solve the problems there.
The two main axes of economic relations between Germany and Russia are trade and energy and this blog analyzes the scale and importance of these links.
German-Russian trade has a long history Russian exports there 100 years ago in Germany represented 30 overseas sales Russian imports from Germany exceeded the total imports 46 Most trade consisted of food, manufactures and then, as now, raw materials.
Russia is an important trading partner for Germany This is the seventh major source of German imports and the market 11 major export for German goods and services, the total trade between the two countries exceeded 76 billion in 2013, the trade balance is in favor of Russie 4 4 billion in 2013.
German exports to Russia are more diversified than imports of machinery and vehicles leading.
While many small and large German companies would be affected by a drop in trade due to increased sanctions, the German general trade does not depend much on Russia Most German exporters have much more focus on China and Asian markets growing in 2013, German trade with China reached $ 140 billion, almost double the 76 billion Russian trade.
About 10 of all German exporters are selling in Russia about 75 of them, exports to Russia account for less than 25 of their total exports.
Imports from Russia mainly include fuels with only 1 of the German companies that import from Russia However, in value, 50 German imports from Russia are imported by companies for which these imports represent at least 75 of their imports Total.
Russia values its trade with Germany strongly the website of the Embassy of Russian Federation in Berlin notes The Federal Republic is the first partner for us in Europe and therefore holds a key position in the foreign economic contact system of our country.
German trade with Russia is important but not decisive in relation to its exchanges with other partners other hand, the Russian trade with Germany is important for Moscow and the Russians have at least as much interest to avoid disruption in the economic and even political relations More than half of Russian government revenue from the sale of fuels with 80 of its oil and 70 of its gas exports to the EU.
Russia has vast reserves of key commodities It represents 20 of the world's land area, 22 forest, 20 freshwater and 16 mineral resources with nearly 25 of the world's gas reserves 5 3 oil reserves and is the second source of coal reserves.
The EU is a key market for Russia More than 40 of its trade with the EU countries and is the EU relies on Russia for 30 of its 35 gas and its oil.
Germany is also very dependent on oil, gas and coal account for 75 of total German imports from Russia with 36 of its gas imports and 39 oil imports from Russian suppliers with 50 of the gas flowing through pipelines that cross Ukraine.
The argument can be made that Germany is less dependent on Russian fuel and therefore less vulnerable than many other European countries, the Baltic countries and Finland import 100 of their gas from Russia with Poland, Hungary and Slovakia supply most of their gas needs from Russia.
In the longer term, it is also possible for Germany to diversify its sources, for example, gas supply increasingly by European Western sources or even the United States, although it would be much more expensive, however the dependence of Germany on Russian gas is unlikely to diminish in the near future.
In May 2014, the German Minister of Economy and Energy Sigmar Gabriel said that I do not know anyone in the world who could tell us how Europe's dependence on imports Russian gas can be changed in the short term.
German dependency on energy imports from Russia is important and ventilation cause significant short-medium term problems that are difficult to treat, as pointed out Gabriel on energy, even as trade, help to explain the German reluctance to commit serious sanctions against Russia.
The German resort on Russian energy sources is a problem for Europe and not only in Germany earlier this year, Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk warned dependence of Germany on Russian gas can actually diminish the sovereignty of Europe, I do not doubt that he would speak with said Chancellor Angela Merkel on Germany to take measures so that the dependence on Russian gas doesn t paralyze Europe when he need a decisive stance Reuters Poland itself is highly dependent on Russia as a source of fuel, but has taken steps to reduce this dependency over the past years.
In 2012, more than 6000 German companies were registered in Russia These companies have a combined turnover of 40 billion and employed approximately 270 000 people in Germany, 350,000 jobs are estimated to depend on business with Russia German firms invested over $ 22 billion in Russia with Siemens, Volkswagen, BASF, Henkel and Metro among the main players in 2013, 132,400 German cars were sold in Russia and the German mechanical engineering companies reached 9 5 billion turnover trade with Russia, the percentage of revenue dependent on Russian trade has increased for many leading German companies, for example BASF 14, Metro 8, Adidas 7.
The importance that many major German companies agreed to Russia stated that the new CEO of Siemens Joe Kaeser visited Russia three times during his first 100 days in office and included in his itinerary a meeting with Vladimir Putin Siemens employs about 3120 in Russia and have 2 2 billion turnover of their Russian company Volkswagen has built a plant in Kaluga 1 4bn with 5,000 employees and BMW has a small factory in Kaliningrad.
German companies with links to Russia have been lobbying against tougher sanctions on Ukraine They put pressure on all sides for greater dialogue Dr. Eckhard Cordes, the German president of the Committee of the German economy Ostausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft and co-chair of working Group 1 Petersburg dialogue economy called Germany to play a leading role in the development of this dialogue last fall, he commented prophetically given current tensions between Moscow and Brussels, Germany must strengthen its role as an intermediary.
Competition between bring Ukraine into closer association with the EU and the country's integration into the Customs Union Russia-based is considered to have been a key element in the kick-off of the current conflict, German-Russian chamber of foreign trade has warned in an early position paper May 2014 that further economic sanctions would lead to a loss of German market shares which would in the long term turn and durable and cause irreparable damage to the competitive position of Germany's recent July 2014 shot of a Malaysian Airlines commercial flight re ignited the call for economic sanctions by EU states against Russia and considerably weakened the anti-sanctions lobby business .
Angela Merkel has played a key role as an interface between the EU and the West and Russia a role that will probably grow in the future, it includes Russia, perhaps more than any other Western leader; she talks about the price of the Russian national school and routinely won the GDR for his competence in the language, it has a long-standing interest in the country and is an admirer of Catherine the Great, whose photograph sits on his desk.
Sue in the former GDR, it has a direct experience of the use of Russian power, she knows what it deals with, in particular, with Vladimir Putin as an interesting anecdote, she is afraid of dogs, however, Putin bought his black labrador, Koni, to a meeting with her in which the dog was allowed to wander out of the lead discomforted Although Merkel maintained control of himself calm, but it is doubtful that she forgot this incident.
She is the daughter of a German pastor of the East and has a strong interest in human rights, she often criticized Russia for violations of human rights and played a key role in the release Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
This background can go some way to explaining why she supported a line a little stronger on sanctions on Ukraine, unlike some of his predecessors, including Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schroeder, who advocated a conciliatory approach to Russia, she clearly stepped up to the mark and took a leadership role to help resolve the crisis in Ukraine since the overwhelming election of Petro Poroshenko to the Ukrainian president, the German chancellor has increased in extra effort and became, if not the key figure in the definition of relations between Russia, the EU and the Western world.
In taking this role it assumes, perhaps against the core, the mantle of a world and not just a German or European leader.
Perhaps a future Russian president will have his picture on his desk.
1 Petersburg Dialogue is a bilateral forum for better understanding between civil society in Germany and Russia formed in 2001 by Gerhard Schroeder and Vladimir Putin.
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